Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 September 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 11 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 1001 (N06E14) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for 12 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for 13 September, with unsettled to active conditions expected for 14 September. The increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Sep 067
  Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        11 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Sep  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  005/005-007/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%20%35%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%25%40%
Minor storm01%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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