Viewing archive of Friday, 14 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Despite 9 regions on the disk,
only low level C-class flares have occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (15-17 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm
possible on day 1 (15 October) and mostly unsettled with
intermittent active periods on days 2-3 (16-17 October). The
activity is forecast as effects from an anticipated CH HSS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 136 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 012/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 1 December 2025
X1.9 solar flare, Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 14 November 2025
X4.0 solar flare
Tuesday, 11 November 2025
X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
AR4299 M8.1 CME 2025/12/06 8AR 4299 82AR4294 / 4296 / 4298 336Electron event 8Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 18
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Solar activity or if there is a chance to see the aurora, but with more traffic comes higher costs to keep the servers online. If you like SpaceWeatherLive and want to support the project you can choose a subscription for an ad-free site or consider a donation. With your help we can keep SpaceWeatherLive online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/06 | M8.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 175.4 +83.6 |
| Last 30 days | 106.4 +12.9 |