Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. There are 8 numbered regions on
the disk producing weak C-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares expected and a chance for M-class flares for the
next 3 days (16-18 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with the exception of an
isolated period of unsettled conditions 15/00-03Z, due to increased
solar wind speeds combined with a period of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active days 1-2 (16-17 October) due to
CH HSS effects. Conditions are forecast to be mostly quiet on day 3
(18 October) as solar wind speeds wane.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 138 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 1 February 2026
Complex sunspot region 4366
Monday, 19 January 2026
CME impact! S4 solar radiation storm
Sunday, 18 January 2026
X1.9 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Latest forum messages
CME March 1 6AR4379/4380 13Did ChatGPT Find a New Solar Physics Formula? 20Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 213Forum alert bar hidden at the bottom 6
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Solar activity or if there is a chance to see the aurora, but with more traffic comes higher costs to keep the servers online. If you like SpaceWeatherLive and want to support the project you can choose a subscription for an ad-free site or consider a donation. With your help we can keep SpaceWeatherLive online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/25 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (5%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| February 2026 | 75.5 -37.1 |
| Last 30 days | 81.7 -39.4 |