Viewing archive of Friday, 12 April 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Apr 12 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetism

Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Solar protons

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Apr 2013	140	009
13 Apr 2013	143	076
14 Apr 2013	146	022

Bulletin

Catania sunspot groups 40 and 45 (NOAA ARs 1718 and 1721) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field and might produce flaring activity up to M-level. Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 1719) is growing and has developed beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Due to this rapid increase in the number of spots and magnetic complexity, we expect further significant flaring activity (probably up to X-level) from this active region, with a possibility of another Earth-directed CME and an SEP event. The current SEP event associated with the full halo CME of April 11 is still ongoing, although the proton flux is decreasing. We expect a slight and temporary increase of the proton flux at the arrival of the interplanetary shock associated with the halo CME of April 11. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with an intermediate speed (around 450 km/s) and average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We therefore expect quiet geomagnetic conditions until the arrival (most probably tomorrow morning) of the interplanetary disturbance (probably a shock and a magnetic cloud) associated with the full halo CME of April 11. The occurrence of a strong geomagnetic storm (K index around 7) will be probable.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 075, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Apr 2013

Wolf number Catania	120
10cm solar flux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	086 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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