Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 May 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 May 14 1301 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 May 2013	150	007
15 May 2013	153	015
16 May 2013	156	007

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1748 rotated into view, it is still not possible to infer its magnetic configuration but it is a big region with mixed magnetic polarities. It produced two X-class flares in past 24h and can produce more. The first one was an X2.8 with peak at 16:05 UT on May 13, the second one an X3.2 at 01:11 UT today. Both were related to radio bursts and fast limb CMEs. The first CME has a speed of 1500 km/s in the LASCO C3 field of view (decelerated with respect to the 1800 km/s seen in C2), while the second one was travelling at 1900 km/s in LASCO C3 (accelerated from the 1600 km/s measured in C2). Due to the source region location right at the limb, we expect at most a shock arriving to the Earth early on May 15 (09:00 UT for the first one and 13:00 UT for the second one). There is also a CME from May 12 expected to arrive around the same time as the first CME from yesterday. The second X flare and corresponding CME produced also a rise on the proton flux, which is still below the threshold and seems stable for the moment. NOAA AR 1745 has also potential for M flares. High solar activity is expected for the next 48h. Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet. The possible arrival of a shock from the two halo CMEs and a mild fast speed stream from a coronal hole may increase conditions to active and possible minor storm levels in the next 48h.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 106, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 13 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	147
10cm solar flux	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	097 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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