Viewing archive of Friday, 7 June 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Jun 07 1305 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Jun 2013	110	029
08 Jun 2013	110	014
09 Jun 2013	108	012

Bulletin

Solar activity is low with only three C-class flares reported during last 36 hours. The strongest flare reported is currently ongoing C1.5 flare peaking at 11:51 UT. We expect C-class flares and possibly but not probably also M-class flares, in particular from the fast growing Catania sunspot group 96 (NOAA AR 1765). The increase of the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude (up to 12 nT), and its southward Bz component (up to -10 nT) starting at about 14:20 UT on June 06, is associated with the arrival of the magnetic cloud. The solar source of the magnetic cloud is still not clear, and two possibilities arise; the flareless eruption on June 2 at about 17:30 UT (at N10W25 as seen from the Earth), and a faint eruption associated with the C9.5 flare on June 03. The arrival of the magnetic cloud resulted in active geomagnetic condition which are still in progress (Durbes reports up to K=5 and NOAA Kp=6). The arrival of the fast flow from the small equatorial coronal hole is expected on June 08. A CME- driven shock wave associated with the M1.3 flare on June 05, might be expected on June 09 producing at most unsettled geomagnetic conditions. We expect active geomagnetic conditions during following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 034, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Jun 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	041
AK Wingst	029
Estimated Ap	028
Estimated international sunspot number	050 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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