Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 May 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 May 11 1126 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 May 2013	125	003
12 May 2013	125	014
13 May 2013	125	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been active during the past 24 hours, featuring four C flares and one M1.3 flare. The M flare was produced by AR 11745 (which also released the majority of the C flares) and had its peak around 12:56 UT on May 10. More C flares and even M flares are likely within the next 48 hours, especially from NOAA AR 11745. In the last 24 hours, the IMF has been steady around 4 nT, while solar wind speeds have decreased from about 440 and to 390 km/s. On May 12, a weak coronal hole high speed stream may cause solar wind speeds to increase again up to 500 km/s. Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for May 11 to 13, with a chance for active levels (K Dourbes = 4) on May 12, due to a weak coronal hole high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 087, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 10 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	145
10cm solar flux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	081 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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