Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 July 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Jul 18 1257 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Jul 2013	112	015
19 Jul 2013	112	044
20 Jul 2013	113	010

Bulletin

Solar activity is low. The last C-class flare reported was C1.6 flare, peaking at 09:16 UT on July 17. The Catania sunspot group 30 (NOAA AR 1791) and NOAA AR 1793 still have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field, and therefore, also the potential to produce C-class and possibly M-class flares. The newly arrived data showed that the CME from July 16 will probably not arrive at the Earth since the bulk of the CME mass was directed north-west of the Sun-Earth line. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 5 nT. The solar wind speed is increasing, and it is currently about 450 km/s. The observed increase of the solar wind speed is probably due to the arrival of the fast flow associated with the low-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere which reached the central meridian on July 16. We expect minor storm conditions with possibly isolated intervals of major storm conditions in the following 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 068, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Jul 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	111
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	054 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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