Viewing archive of Friday, 19 July 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Jul 19 1316 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Jul 2013	113	023
20 Jul 2013	115	030
21 Jul 2013	116	015

Bulletin

Solar activity is still low with only two C-class flares reported during last 24 hours. Both of them were C2.3 flares originating from the NOAA AR 1800 situated at the moment close to the east solar limb. NOAA AR 1793 still has beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field, and therefore, also the potential to produce C-class and possibly M-class flares. The prominence eruption on the east solar limb at about 17:59 UT on July 18 was associated with the CME first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 18:24 UT. The CME had angular width of 130 degrees and projected speed of about 550 km/s, as reported by the CACTUS software. The CME might be Earth directed, however this cannot be confirmed, due to the data gap in STEREO observations. The Earth is inside the fast speed stream due to the low-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere. At the moment the solar wind speed is 600 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is rather stable with the magnitude of about 5 nT. The arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream resulted in active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4 reported by Dourbes, K = 5 reported by IZMIRAN and NOAA reported Kp=4) on July 18 and early on July 19. We expect minor storm conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 056, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Jul 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	071 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page