Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 December 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Dec 05 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Dec 2013	142	007
06 Dec 2013	145	007
07 Dec 2013	145	010

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1913 which is ready to rotate behind the west limb released yesterday December 4 a C-flare. It is still active but its influence will fade away as soon as its coronal loops disappear behind the limb. NOAA AR 1916 released today, December 5 already a C-flare. A new region at the east limb flared also in the C-level. We expect the C-flaring activity to continue with a probability of 80%, we estimate the chances for an M-flare to be 30%, the chances for an X-flare are small. Earth is in a slow solar wind: around 350 km/s. The magnetic field strength is around 5 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to stay so. The coronal hole located just above the solar equator can become geoeffective from December 7. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions (K<=4) are possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 071, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	086 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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