Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 January 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jan 01 1225 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Jan 2014	148	013
02 Jan 2014	148	019
03 Jan 2014	150	010

Bulletin

Active solar conditions were observed since our last bulletin. An M6.4 flare occurred in NOAA AR 11936 on December 31 with peak time at 21:58 UT, associated with a CME. This eruption followed a long duration C8.8 event at 11:50 UT, occurring in the active region complex that is turning over the east limb. More C-class flaring is expected, especially in regions 11936 and 11938. Another M-class flare from AR 11936 is also possible. Due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole fast wind stream and CME activity, we expect minor storm conditions (K_Dourbes up to 5) late this evening and early tomorrow. SDO/AIA images show that the M-flare on December 31 was accompanied by a CME. Due to the location of the source region, we expect this slow CME (projected speed ~270 km/s) to reach Earth early on January 5 where it may cause unsettled or active geomagnetic conditions (K_Dourbes up to 4).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 31 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	/// - Based on /// stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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