Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 January 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jan 02 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Jan 2014	165	022
03 Jan 2014	170	008
04 Jan 2014	170	008

Bulletin

Solar activity was at active levels during the past 24 hours. The strongest event, an M9.9 flare, occurred in NOAA AR 1936 (no Catania numbering yet) and peaked on January 1 at 18:52 UT. The event was associated with a slow CME (estimated projected speed 400 km/s) with first observation in LASCO/C2 at 20:00 UT. This CME might reach Earth on January 5 around 22h UT. New region NOAA AR 1944, located at S05E76, also produced an M1.7 and three C flares. A prominence eruption occurred on January 1 from around 13:00 UT located in the southeast quadrant and seems associated with a CME. This CME mainly is mainly southward directed and is not expected to reach the Earth. More M flares are likely to occur, especially from NOAA ARs 1936 and 1944. There is a moderate chance for an X flare. We maintain the warning condition for proton events. Solar wind data measured by ACE indicate the arrival of a coronal hole fast speed stream. Solar wind speed is about 600 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 17 nT, with a Bz- component varying between -13 and +8 nT. Current geomagnetic conditions are unsettled to active (Kp 3 to 4). Unsettled to minor storm conditions (Kp 3 to 5) are expected due to the possible arrival of the CMEs of December 29 and December 31.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 092, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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