Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 January 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jan 04 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Jan 2014	192	005
05 Jan 2014	195	005
06 Jan 2014	195	004

Bulletin

Five C flares and three M flares were measured by GOES during the past 24 hours. The strongest flare was an M1.3 flare with a peak time on January 4 at 10:25 UTC. NOAA AR 1944 was responsible for most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 1944 has shown some growth in size and number of sunspots. NOAA AR 1937 has also grown and produced one C4.0 flare peaking on January 3 at 18:35 UTC. The chances for C flares are high (90%). Also more M flares are possible (probability 50%), especially from NOAA AR 1944. There is a slight chance for an X flare (15%). We maintain the warning condition for proton events. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar wind speed measured by ACE varied from 450 to 550 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is stable around 4 to 6 nT, with a fluctuating Bz- component varying between -6 and +5 nT. No signatures of any ICME arrival has been detected yet. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled (estimated NOAA Kp and K_Izmiran 1 to 3). Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 101, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	182
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	107 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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