Viewing archive of Friday, 10 January 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jan 10 1253 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Jan 2014	180	004
11 Jan 2014	170	023
12 Jan 2014	160	014

Bulletin

The background flaring activity is close to C class level. The large active region NOAA AR 1944 is declining in size and complexity. NOAA AR 1946 is also past is stable in size. Both regions still have some flaring potential while rotating towards the west limb. The proton flux for >10MeV protons is still above the event threshold of 10 pfu, but declining. The probability for C flares is around 60%. M flares are also still possible with a likelihood of 40%. Chances for an X-flare are estimated at 5%. A shock in the solar wind data was observed on January 9 at 19:35 UTC. Solar wind speed, density and temperature showed an abrupt increase, as well as the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field. The solar wind speed increased from 400 to 500 km/s and then declined towards 400 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 17 nT, with a mainly positive Bz-component. Geomagnetic conditions were at most unsettled (K=3). Quiet to active levels (K=3 to 4) are expected due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on January 11.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	164
10cm solar flux	184
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	086 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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