Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 February 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Feb 06 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Feb 2014	197	005
07 Feb 2014	200	013
08 Feb 2014	196	009

Bulletin

Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967) is showing signs of decay, although it still maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It produced the strongest flare of the past 24 hours, the M1.3 flare peaking yesterday at 16:20 UT. No CME was associated with this flare. The area of Catania sunspot group 27 (NOAA AR 1968) is growing, but this group maintains the beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field and produces only C-class flares. We expect further flaring activity on the C- and M-level in these two groups, with an X-class flare being possible but unlikely. A CME associated with a flare in these active regions may still arrive at the Earth. Due to position of these groups in the western hemisphere, a major CME in one of them may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning condition. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow with elevated (7-8 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. Due to low solar wind speed, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours. Late on February 7 we expect the arrival of the fast flow from an extended solar coronal hole (currently stretched across the solar central meridian), resulting in a geomagnetic disturbance up to active (K = 4) level.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 112, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	194
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	124 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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