Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 January 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jan 14 1219 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Jan 2014	143	011
15 Jan 2014	142	009
16 Jan 2014	142	007

Bulletin

During last 24 hours five C-class flares and one M-class flare were reported. The M1.3 flare, which originated from the Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944), peaked at 21:51 UT on January 13. The flare was associated with the CME, however from the currently available data it is not clear if the CME was Earth directed. The background X-ray flax has almost a C-level, so we expect C-class flares and possibly also M-class flares. The Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944) is at the West solar limb and we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The SOHO/LASCO coronagraph data show front side CME without an associated flare (possibly stealth CME). The CME is first time seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at about 21:17 UT on January 13. The bulk of the CME mass was oriented southward of the Sun-Earth line and we do not expect the CME to arrive at the Earth. A glancing glow is possible, but not very probable, from the CME-driven shock wave. The eruption, at about 08:31 UT today, was accompanied by coronal dimming and EIT wave observed by SDO/AIA. From the currently available data it is not clear if the associated CME was Earth directed. The solar wind speed is slowly decreasing, however the Earth is still inside a fast flow (680 km/s) associated with the extended (in latitude and in longitude) coronal hole in the northern hemisphere which first reached the central meridian on January 8. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is currently about 4 nT. Short interval of negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field resulted in unsettled geomagnetic conditions early this morning (Izmiran reported values of K=3, and NOAA reported a Kp value of 4).We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	088 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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