Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 January 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jan 15 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Jan 2014	137	004
16 Jan 2014	131	007
17 Jan 2014	125	006

Bulletin

The flaring activity is at the low C-class level. The last C-class flare reported was C3.2 flare which peaked at 16:04 UT, on January 14. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944). The background X-ray flux has high B-level, so we expect C-class flares, while M-class flares are not probable. The Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944) just rotated behind the West solar limb and we maintain the warning condition for a proton event for the following 24 hours. The eruption, originating from the Catania sunspot group 9 (NOAA AR 1950) at about 08:30 UT on January 14, was accompanied by coronal dimming, EIT wave and a post- eruption arcade observed by SDO/AIA. Due to data gap the associated partial halo CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view only at the height of about 4.5 solar radii, at 11:36 UT on January 14. The CME had a width of about 180 degrees and approximate speed of 400 km/s. The bulk of the CME mass was directed somewhat northward of the Sun-Earth line and we expect at least the glancing blow from the associated CME-driven shock wave, on January 18. The solar wind speed is still slowly decreasing and its current value is about 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is stable with the magnitude between 2 and 3 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet and expected to remain so in the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 066, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	070 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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