Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 February 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Feb 26 1319 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Feb 2014	176	007
27 Feb 2014	178	028
28 Feb 2014	178	025

Bulletin

Solar activity has calmed down since the X-class firework of yesterday. Flaring activity in the past 24 hours has been at the C5 level in active regions NOAA1986-Cat48 and NOAA1989-Cat50. For the first region, the activity corresponds to a (recurrently) activating filament which we expect to erupt at some stage. Major (M or X class flaring) flaring potential remains in various active regions, in particular NOAA1982-46, NOAA1987-Cat54 and NOAA1990-Cat52. The CME associated with the X4.9 flare of Feb 25 00:49 expanded to a full halo CME. Propagation speeds above 1500 km/s were measured. Culgoora Observatory observed type II radio bursts with speeds of 2000 km/s and 700 km/s. As this CME was not completely Earth-directed, we expect that only a glancing blow of the shock will arrive at the Earth, early Feb 27. Soon thereafter (Feb 28 late onwards) we also expect the influence of the fast wind stream from a small coronal hole that crossed central meridian mid Feb 24. As a consequence, we expect episodes of active geomagnetic conditions from early Feb 27 onwards for about 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 141, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	125 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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