Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 February 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Feb 27 1116 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Feb 2014	180	016
28 Feb 2014	180	019
01 Mar 2014	180	007

Bulletin

Given the large number of complex, active regions on the disk, solar activity has been moderate. The strongest flare was an M1.1 flare from NOAA AR 1982, now approaching the solar West limb. For the coming days, the largest chance for major flaring comes from active region NOAA1990-Cat52 and NOAA1991-Cat59. In particular NOAA1990-Cat52 (the source of the X4.9 flare of Feb 25) is now categorised as beta-delta and is slowly increasing in size. At the time of this writing, the expected shock from the CME following the X4.9 flare has not arrived yet. ACE measurement of low energy proton fluxes are rising since Feb 26 22:00, therefore suggesting the shock is near. We expect thus active geomagnetic conditions later today. They will continue into tomorrow Feb 28 as we expect the influence of the fast solar wind stream from a (small) coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 142, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	226
10cm solar flux	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	155 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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