Viewing archive of Monday, 10 March 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Mar 10 1308 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Mar 2014	146	009
11 Mar 2014	146	007
12 Mar 2014	146	007

Bulletin

There were four low M flares and twelve C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours, the large majority being released by NOAA AR 12002. The brightest one was an M1.1 flare from NOAA AR 12002 peaking at 00:26 UT on March 10. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is very high (over 95%) and for M flares around 70%, mainly from beta-gamma-delta region NOAA AR 12002. An X flare is possible but unlikely. The halo CME detected by CACTUS on LASCO C2 imagery from 3:12 UT on March 9, is probably a backsided event related to an eruption in NOAA AR 11986, as can be seen in STEREO B images. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. Since 12h UT on March 9, solar wind speed as observed by ACE decreased from around 340 km/s to around 270 km/s around 0h UT on March 10, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 1.5 and 4.5 nT in this period. From then onwards, solar wind speed increased again to about 340 km/s, with the magnitude of the IMF fluctuating between 1.5 and 6 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 3). Quiet geomagnetic levels are expected on March 10, 11, and 12.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 083, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Mar 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	080 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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