Viewing archive of Friday, 4 April 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
04/1348Z from Region 2027 (N12E17). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr,
07 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 488 km/s at
04/0759Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/0258Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 04/0229Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (06 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (07
Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 157 Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 018/020-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 20% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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