Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 July 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jul 31 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Jul 2014	160	004
01 Aug 2014	166	004
02 Aug 2014	172	018

Bulletin

There are currently 8 sunspot groups present on the solar disk. NOAA 2127 produced most of the flares including a C9 flare peaking at 16:17UT (30 July). Overnight, NOAA 2130 developed a delta spot south of its trailing portion and started producing flares again around 05:00UT. This culminated in an M2.5 flare peaking at 11:14UT, the strongest event of the period. Evaluation of any associated CME is pending the availability of coronagraphic images. Yesterday's filament eruption (NE quadrant) was associated to a CME which may have an Earth directed component. Based on STEREO and SOHO imagery, its true speed is estimated to be about 800 km/s and may affect the geomagnetic field on 2 August. The filaments near the NE-limb and in the SW solar quadrant are stable. Further M-class flaring is possible, in particular from NOAA 2127 and 2130. Solar wind speed varied between 300 and 350 km/s, and Bz between -3 and +4 nT. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed. A small equatorial coronal hole is approaching the central meridian and may influence the geomagnetic field around 4 August. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected until 2 August, when the CME related to the 30 July filament eruption may deliver a glancing blow and result in active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 101, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Jul 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	098 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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