Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 August 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Aug 27 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Aug 2014	125	013
28 Aug 2014	123	010
29 Aug 2014	120	008

Bulletin

Solar activity has decreased in the past 24 hours. Only a few C-class flares were observed, with NOAA ARs 2146, 2149 and 2151 as source regions. The largest flare was a C5.6 flare, peaking at 23:25 UT on August 26. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Flaring activity is expected to continue at the level of C-flares, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. The risk for a proton event has reduced, but for the time being we leave the warning condition due to position of AR 2146 which still has a delta component. Solar wind observations indicate the arrival of an ICME around 0:00 UT of August 27, related to the CMEs of August 22. The magnitude of the magnetic field has smoothly increased from about 5 to 15 nT. The Bz component is southward with values up to -14 nT. Solar wind speed increased from 280 to 320 km/s, while there were only small variations in density and temperature. Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled (local K at Dourbes=3) to active (NOAA Kp=4), which is expect to persist for the next few hours, till quiet conditions return. The potential arrival of the August 25 CMEs might cause active conditions again from the UT afternoon of August 28 onwards.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 070, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Aug 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	066 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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