Viewing archive of Friday, 12 September 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Sep 12 1251 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Severe magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Solar protons

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Sep 2014	158	034
13 Sep 2014	162	063
14 Sep 2014	164	008

Bulletin

Over the last 24 hours, 2 M-class flares were produced by a currently unnumbered region at the northeast limb: an M2.1 flare peaking at 15:26UT, and an M1.4 flare peaking at 21:26UT. NOAA 2157 and 2158 produced 2 C-class flares each. The strongest was a C9.5 flare peaking at 02:24UT in NOAA 2157. Both of these regions have no longer a delta structure, but spots of opposite magnetic polarity are still close together. Based on the currently available imagery, no CMEs seem to have been associated to these flares. M-class flares are expected, with a chance on an X-class event. On 11 September around 23:00UT, ACE observed a shock in the solar wind. Wind speed abruptly changed from about 350 to 480 km/s. Bz oscillated between -14 and +11nT. This was the arrival of the halo CME related to the M4-flare from 9 September. The impact resulted in active geomagnetic conditions (Dourbes), while Kp reached minor geomagnetic storm levels. Also the proton flux slightly increased. The arrival of the halo CME from the X1 flare is expected for later today. Pending the orientation of the CME's magnetic field, this may result in a major geomagnetic storm, with locally severe geomagnetic storming possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 091, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Sep 2014

Wolf number Catania	208
10cm solar flux	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	113 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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