Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 October 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Oct 09 1335 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Oct 2014	126	020
10 Oct 2014	127	010
11 Oct 2014	125	008

Bulletin

During last 24 hours 3 M-class and 11 C-class flares were reported, all originating from the Catania sunspot group 67 (NOAA AR 2182) which has rather simple, beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The strongest flare observed was the M1.4 flare which peaked at 01:58 UT this morning. The flare was associated with the coronal wave and possibly also CME (it will be confirmed once SOHO LASCO and STEREO coronagraph data become available). We expect flaring activity of the C-class and possibly also of the M-class level. Since the source of the recent flaring activity, Catania sunspot group 67 (NOAA AR 2182) is situated rather close to the west solar limb (about S16 W49), we issue warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is still rather low and it is fluctuating around 350 km/s. Due to the sector change, observed at about 05:30 UT on October 08, the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is elevated and amounts about 10 nT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating with rather long intervals of its negative value (lowest recorded value was about -8 nT). Due to the negative intervals of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field we had unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions (K=4 reported by local station at Dourbes and Kp=4 reported by NOAA) during past 24 hours and we expect such geomagnetic conditions to continue in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 049, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	127
10cm solar flux	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	058 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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