Viewing archive of Friday, 3 October 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Oct 03 1223 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Oct 2014	144	010
04 Oct 2014	139	009
05 Oct 2014	135	010

Bulletin

Late on 2 October, a long duration M1.5 flare was quickly followed by a powerful M7.3 flare, thus ending a 36 hours drought in flaring activity. The two flares peaked resp. at 17:44UT and 19:01UT, and had their source in the sunspot complex NOAA 2172/2173 which was rounding the west limb at that time. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux stayed at nominal levels, and the associated CME was directed to the southwest with no Earth- directed component observed based on currently available imagery. In the wake of the two medium flares, NOAA 2172/2173 produced a series of C-class flares, the strongest being a C9.0 flare peaking at 06:48UT. The x-ray background flux is still at the C1-level, but is expected to decrease as the trailing portion of NOAA 2172 will have rounded the west limb later today. The other 8 sunspot regions have a fairly simple magnetic configuration, and have been quiet. C-class flaring is expected, with a small chance on an M-class flare from behind the west limb from NOAA 2172/2173. Solar wind speed varied mostly between 350 and 400 km/s, and Bz fluctuated between -5 and +4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, and are expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 092, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	093 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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