Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 October 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Oct 30 1248 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Oct 2014	130	010
31 Oct 2014	120	006
01 Nov 2014	120	005

Bulletin

Seven M-class flares and six C-class flares were counted since the last bulletin. An M3.5 flare was the largest flare, peaking at 1:35 UT, originating from Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). Catania group 88 is currently located at the west limb and although it is difficult to determine it's characteristics, the region seems to have shrinked. All other regions on the front side of the solar disk were relatively stable. Catania group 88 is still capable to produce large flares, mainly at the M-level, with a minor chance for another X-flare. We retain the warning condition for a proton event. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraphic imagery. The solar wind speed observed by ACE is low at around 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field has a magnitude of about 5 nT. A sector boundary crossing is observed at about 08:00 UT on October 30 as the phi angle changed from a mostly positive to negative orientation. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance for an isolated time slot of active conditions (K=4).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	128
10cm solar flux	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	070 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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