Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 October 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Oct 18 1221 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Oct 2014	151	014
19 Oct 2014	151	012
20 Oct 2014	151	012

Bulletin

During the past 24 hours, one M flare and six C flares were released by beta-gamma region NOAA AR 2192, the region close to the east limb that had already released three M flares this week. The long duration M1.6 flare peaked at 7:58 UT on October 18. In the next 48 hours, M flares are probable, with a chance for an X flare, especially from AR 2192. A faint halo CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 10:00 UT on October 17. Based on the absence of corresponding events in SDO imagery, this CME is probably backward, and will probably not become geo-effective. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speeds observed by ACE varied between about 385 and 535 km/s, with current speed values around 440 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 0.5 and 8.5 nT, with current values around 6.5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions during the last 24 hours were quiet to active (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) with active excursions (K Dourbes = 4) are expected on October 18, 19 and 20.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 042, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	045 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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