Viewing archive of Friday, 14 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 14 1254 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Nov 2014	155	010
15 Nov 2014	160	011
16 Nov 2014	163	013

Bulletin

The solar activity is still low with only few C-class flares reported during the last 24 hours. The strongest reported flare was C 5.4 flare (peaking at 07:48 UT) this morning. There was no Earth-directed CMEs observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares and possibly also M-class flares in particular from the NOAA AR 2209. Due to the current, close-to-the-west-limb position of the NOAA AR 2205, a major eruption from this active region may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is currently about 580 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is slightly elevated and it amounts about 10 nT. Today's ACE solar wind data indicate possible arrival of the sector boundary, which might be followed with the expected arrival of the fast flow (from the extended low latitude coronal hole which reached the central meridian yesterday morning) on the November 15 or early in the November 16. The situation will be more clear as more data will arrive in the coming hours. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled and expected to remain so in the coming hours. However, the expected arrival of the fast solar wind on November 15 or early in November 16 might induce unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 083, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	085 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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