Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 October 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Oct 25 1255 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Oct 2014	216	013
26 Oct 2014	211	012
27 Oct 2014	210	012

Bulletin

The strongest flare observed on the Sun during the past 24 hours was the X3.1 flare peaking at 21:41 UT yesterday in the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). SOHO/LASCO data demonstrate that the flare was accompanied only with a very weak and narrow CME. No geomagnetic consequences are expected. Despite the decrease in the area of the Catania sunspot group 88, it maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, so we expect the flaring activity up to X-level from this sunspot group. As the Catania sunspot group 88 is currently situated close to the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. A long filament in the northern hemisphere is now crossing the solar central meridian. Its possible eruption may lead to an Earth-directed CME. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 390 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	///
Estimated international sunspot number	104 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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