Viewing archive of Friday, 21 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 21 1204 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Nov 2014	170	015
22 Nov 2014	172	015
23 Nov 2014	174	016

Bulletin

Six C-class flares were detected on the Sun in the past 24 hours: four in the NOAA AR 2209 and two in the NOAA AR 2216. The strongest flare was the C2.5 flare peaking at 19:56 UT yesterday in the NOAA AR 2209. It was not associated with a CME. The NOAA AR 2209 maintains the beta-gamma- delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, so we expect flaring activity on the C-level from this region as well as from the NOAA AR 2216, with an isolated M-class flare possible but unlikely. A long filament in the northern hemisphere is approaching the solar central meridian. Its eruption may lead to an Earth-directed CME. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 380 km/s) solar wind flow with slightly elevated (7-8 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay at the quiet to unsettled level (K < 4) with isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 046, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	121
10cm solar flux	168
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	045 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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