Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 October 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Oct 29 1244 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Oct 2014	150	009
30 Oct 2014	140	007
31 Oct 2014	130	006

Bulletin

Solar activity has slightly reduced in the past 24 hours, with three M-class and two C-class flares. Activity mainly originated from Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). A narrow CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery (first measurement at October 28 20:24 UT), with a projected speed of 388 km/s (CACTus estimate). The CME is travelling to the northeast of the Sun-Earth line. The CME is believed to be associated with activity at the backside of the Sun and as such no effect on Earth is expected. Catania group 88 still has potential to produce strong flares up to the X-level. Due to it's location close to the West limb, a strong eruption may result in a rise of the proton flux. Earth is currently inside a slow solar wind, with solar wind speed decreasing from 450 km/s to currently around 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field has a magnitude of about 5 nT with fluctuating Bz values. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are observed and are expected to continue.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 070, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	073 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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