Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 05 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Nov 2014	131	015
06 Nov 2014	133	015
07 Nov 2014	135	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was dominated by the M7.9 flare peaking at 9:47 UT and originating from the new NOAA AR 2205 turning further into view. It was associated with a type II radio burst detected by Humain and Learmonth. Learmonth reports an estimated shock speed of between 364-556 km/s. SDO data to analyse the event closely are not available yet. A corresponding CME is visible in preliminary SOHO/LASCO C2 data but the onset is missed due to a data gap. We will follow up as more data becomes available. No other significant flaring activity occurred. Some further development and separation was recorded in Catania groups 3 (NOAA AR 2201), 4 (NOAA AR 2203) and 5 (NOAA unnumbered) as well as some flux emergence in Catania group 98 (NOAA AR 2200). Additional M flares are likely from NOAA AR 2205. Solar wind speed has been steadily increasing over the last 24 hours from just below 420 km/s to about 520 km/s presently. Total magnetic field reached a peak of over 14 nT at the start of the reporting period, but has decreased and is presently around 7 nT. Bz also reached peaks of -12 nT at the start of the reporting period. Consequently active geomagnetic conditions were recorded in the first part of the reporting period (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 4) later recovering to quiet to unsettled conditions. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream with quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions with possible periods of active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	027
Estimated Ap	026
Estimated international sunspot number	076 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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