Viewing archive of Monday, 10 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 10 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Nov 2014	134	023
11 Nov 2014	139	010
12 Nov 2014	144	007

Bulletin

NOAA active region 2205 produced another M flare (M2.3) peaking at 15:32 UT as well as another handful of C flares. The CME corresponding to yesterdays filament eruption is confirmed to be non Earth directed. Flaring at M level is expected to continue from region 2205, while old region 2192 is about to rotate back onto the disc. With NOAA AR rotating onto the western hemisphere chances for a proton event are increasing. Solar wind total magnetic field experienced a jump around 1:30 UT, increasing suddenly from around 10 nT to around 24 nT. Bz was mostly positive after the jump but had peaks to below -8nT and there was an extended period of -8nT yesterday late before the shock. Solar wind speed increased from levels around 440 km/s to levels around 480 km/s with peaks over 550 km/s. Also density and temperature saw a slight increase. This thus marks the earlier than expected arrival of the November 7 CME. Total magnetic field has meanwhile decreased again to levels near 13 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, reaching active levels with the shock arrival. Fluctuating solar wind conditions may last for the remainder of the day with possible periods of active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 051, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	132
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	062 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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