Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 20 1156 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Nov 2014	175	013
21 Nov 2014	180	012
22 Nov 2014	185	012

Bulletin

Three C-class flares were reported during the past 24 hours. The two weaker ones (C2.4 and C2.6 yesterday evening) were produced by the NOAA AR 2209. The strongest flare (C7.6 peaking at 06:41 UT today) was produced by a large unnumbered sunspot group that just appeared from behind the east limb. We expect this group to produce more C-class flares, possibly with an isolated M-class flare. NOAA AR 2209 started to decay in area and in number of sunspots, although it still maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We expect C-class flares from this region, with an M-class flare possible but unlikely. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow with slightly elevated interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude (6-7 nT). Due to this slight elevation of the IMF magnitude, one interval of K = 4 was reported by IZMIRAN and NOAA in the past 24 hours. The K-index measurements by Dourbes remained at the quiet to unsettled levels (K < 4). We expect quiet to unsettled (K < 4) geomagnetic conditions to persist, possibly with isolated intervals of active (K = 4) conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 044, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	058 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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