Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 23 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Nov 2014	170	011
24 Nov 2014	173	016
25 Nov 2014	178	012

Bulletin

NOAA ARs 2209 and 2216 (Catania numbers 9 and 14 respectively) have delta-spots in their trailing parts and continue to produce C-class flares. However, the strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the C3.5 flare peaking at 10:53 UT today in the still unnumbered sunspot group that appeared from behind the east solar limb yesterday evening. We expect flaring activity on the C-level, possibly with an isolated M-class flare. A long filament in the northern hemisphere has finished crossing the solar central meridian, but its eruption may still lead to an Earth-directed CME. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow with slightly elevated (7-8 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. Due to low solar wind speed, the geomagnetic conditions remained mostly at the quiet to unsettled level (K < 4), only with one interval of active conditions (K = 4) reported by IZMIRAN and NOAA yesterday evening. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay at the quiet to unsettled levels (K < 4), with isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 062, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	060 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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