Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 December 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Dec 13 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Dec 2014	160	019
14 Dec 2014	163	013
15 Dec 2014	165	007

Bulletin

Several C-class and one M-class flares erupted since our last bulletin. Activity mostly originated from NOAA active regions 2227 (Catania 27), 2237 and a new region located at the East limb (S05). The impulsive M1.5 flare peaking at 5:20 UT, originated from the new yet unnumbered region near the East limb. More flares at the C-level is expected, with a probability of 40% for an isolated M-flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar wind speed varied between 500 and 700 km/s and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was maximally around 10 nT, decreasing to 7 nT with a fluctuating Bz component. The geomagnetic index reached K=4 at Dourbes. Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach unsettled to active conditions, related to effects of the coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated time slots of minor storm conditions are also possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 099, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	019
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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