Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 December 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Dec 14 1249 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Dec 2014	170	011
15 Dec 2014	175	006
16 Dec 2014	180	011

Bulletin

The Sun produced many C-class flares, originating from NOAA active regions 2227, 2237 and 2241. NOAA 2227 is approaching the west limb, while NOAA 2241 is the new region close to the East limb. The strongest flares were a C8.6 from NOAA 2241 at 4:33 UT and C8.5 from NOAA 2237 at 8:33 UT. An enhancement in the proton flux (no event threshold passed yet) starting in the second half of December 13 (no exact timing due to a data gap in proton flux data) might be related to a C flare originating from NOAA 2227 at 21:54 UT (visible in SDO imagery). A strong eruption occurred at the backside of the Sun, at a region near E150S20, at about 14:20 UT on December 13. It was accompanied by a type II burst measured at Sagamore Hill, starting at 14:48 UT (shock speed 955 km/s). No Earth-directed CME was observed. Chances for an M-class flare are increasing (probability around 50%), mainly from NOAA 2227, 2237 and 2241. The risk for a proton event is increasing, for example in case of a strong flare from NOAA 2227. Solar wind speed is between 400 and 500 km/s and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is stable around 5 nT with a mainly negative Bz. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled and are expected to remain so. The arrival of a high speed stream related to a equatorial coronal hole might result in slightly increased geomagnetic activity from late December 16.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 109, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	111 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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