Viewing archive of Friday, 13 February 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Feb 13 1254 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Feb 2015	126	008
14 Feb 2015	125	004
15 Feb 2015	126	005

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours there were several B class flares and one C class flare. Most activity occurred in (Active Region) AR 2282 located close to the center of the solar disk (E10). AR 2282 produced the largest flare, a C1.0 class flare on 2015-Feb-12 peaking at 14:18 UTC. Previously active NOAA AR 2280 has moved on to the Western hemisphere limb. NOAA ARs 2280, 2281 and 2282 all appear stable, with small amounts of flux emergence. AR 2283 emerged near disk center, and may be the source of future activity. There is a large filament located between S40W02 and S10W90, however this has remained, and appears, stable. Flaring is expected to continue at the B-class level with a possibility of C-class flares. A CME with a velocity of 602 km /s (measured by CACTUS) was observed off of the Eastern limb on 2015-Feb-13 at 04:36 UTC. The source is believed to be back sided. The solar wind speed has remained stable over the past 24 hours around 350 km /s. The total magnetic field has been stable around 6 nT, and the Bz component has changed from largely negative to largely positive. The Bz has ranged between +6 and -6 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to moderate over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 0-2, local K Dourbes 0-3). A large transient coronal hole is currently centered at W25, as this rotates further into the Western hemisphere it may produce enhanced solar wind speeds. Solar wind conditions have been quiet, which is expected to persist. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 051, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Feb 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	037 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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