Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 February 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Feb 14 1253 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Feb 2015	120	003
15 Feb 2015	119	002
16 Feb 2015	120	001

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours there were a couple of B class flares, just above the background flux. Most activity occurred in (Active Region) AR 2282 currently located close to the center of the solar disk (N10). There were no significant flares recorded over the past 24 hours. Previously active NOAA AR 2280 has moved over the Western hemisphere limb. NOAA AR 2284 has rotated into view on the Eastern hemisphere. NOAA ARs 2281, 2282 and 2284 appear stable, with small amounts of flux emergence. AR 2283 which emerged near disk center on 2015-Feb-12 has remained small and appears stable. There is a large filament located between S40W10 and S10W90, however this has remained, and appears, stable. Flaring is expected to continue at the B-class level with a possibility of C-class flares. There were no Earth directed CMEs. Proton numbers have been slowly growing over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed has remained stable over the past 24 hours around 320 km /s. The total magnetic field has been stable around 6 nT, and the Bz component has fluctuated from positive to negative. The Bz has ranged between +6 and -4 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to moderate over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 0-1, local K Dourbes 0-2). A large transient coronal hole is currently centered at W35, this may produce enhanced solar wind speeds. Solar wind conditions have been quiet, which is expected to persist. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 043, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Feb 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	045 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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