Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 March 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
09/2353Z from Region 2297 (S16E39). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at
09/2109Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/2042Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0455Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1055 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (12 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (13 Mar).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 121 Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 006/005-013/018-021/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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