Viewing archive of Monday, 6 April 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/1906Z from Region 2320 (S12E16). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Apr,
08 Apr, 09 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached 606 km/s at
05/2137Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 333 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr)
and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 126 Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 125/125/130 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 007/018-007/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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