Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 April 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Apr 09 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Apr 2015	106	020
10 Apr 2015	106	013
11 Apr 2015	106	007

Bulletin

Beta-delta region NOAA AR 2320 released one M flare and one C flare during the past 24 hours. The M1.4 flare peaked at 14:43 UT on April 8 and was associated to a dimming. No corresponding CME was observed in LASCO imagery. In the next 24 hours, M flaring is possible, with a slight chance for an X flare, especially from AR 2320. A small shock in the solar wind was observed by ACE around 1:10 UT on April 9. Solar wind speed jumped from about 340 to 370 km/s, while the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) magnitude jumped from about 4 to 6 nT and the solar wind density from 3 to 8 particles/cc. This is possibly related to the arrival of the partial halo CME of April 4. A second shock in the solar wind was observed by ACE around 9:12 UT. Solar wind speed jumped from about 350 to 380 km/s, while the magnitude of the IMF jumped from about 6 to 10 nT. This is possibly related to a glancing blow from the CME of April 6. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions have been quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). There is a chance for active to minor storm geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4-5) on April 9 as a result of a glancing blow from the CME of April 6. Quiet to active geomagnetic activity is possible on April 10 and 11, as a new coronal hole high speed stream is expected to arrive near Earth.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 037, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Apr 2015

Wolf number Catania	044
10cm solar flux	106
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	033 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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