Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Apr 29 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Apr 2015	100	008
30 Apr 2015	105	016
01 May 2015	105	008

Bulletin

The active regions are currently stable or decaying, except for a new developing small sunspot group Catania 48. No flares occurred during the past period. SDO/AIA and H-alpha GONG images indicate a few filament eruptions on April 28 in the Eastern hemisphere. The eruption of the extended filament, which was stretching from S05E10 to N40E80, started around 11:00 UT. An associated partial halo CME was detected in SOHO/LASCO images, with first measurement at 14:29 UT. The CME is mainly propagating to the North-East of the Sun-Earth line, with an estimated projected speed of 361 km/s (CACTus estimate). At most a glancing blow will arrive at Earth on May 2 at the end of the UT day. Another faint, asymmetric CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2, with first measurement at 2:48 UT on April 29, which is perceived as a backside event. There is a limited chance (20%) for C-class flares during the next 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field magnitude is fluctuating between 0 and 8 nT, while the solar wind speed obtains values between 280 and 360 km/s. Quiet to unsettled (local K=0 to 3 at Dourbes) geomagnetic conditions were observed and are largely expected to remain so. There is some chance for a few time slots of active (K=4) to minor storm (K=5) conditions, due to an expected flow from a positive polarity coronal hole on April 30.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 022, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Apr 2015

Wolf number Catania	061
10cm solar flux	108
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	032 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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