Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 July 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Jul 04 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Jul 2015	112	004
05 Jul 2015	111	003
06 Jul 2015	111	003

Bulletin

Active Region (AR) 2378 produced two C-class flares and one M-class flare over the past 24 hours. All other ARs have been relatively quiet. AR 2378 has produced the largest flare, a M1.5 class flare, peaking at 12:51 UT on 2015-Jul-03. There is little evidence of a CME associated with the flare. There are some flows / small eruptions emerging from beyond the north-east solar limb, and when the source region rotates into view we may see an increase in activity. The proton numbers have continued to be low and have not exceeded ~1 pfu at the Earth in the past 24 hours. Solar activity may fluctuate in the coming days with AR 2378 appearing quite active.

The solar wind speed has been steadily rising over the past 24 hours, from approx. 320 to 350 km / s. The density has also been slowly rising. The total magnetic field has been slowly increasing from approx. 4 nT to 8 nT, and the Bz component has been around 0 nT with some fluctuations in the past 24 hours, and has dropped as low as -8 nT. A drop in the field and small increases in velocity may cause a small increase in geomagnetic field activity. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index (Dourbes) 0-3 over the past 24 hours, similar conditions are expected to persist. There is one transient coronal hole currently located in the South, which may enhance solar wind speeds at the Earth in a couple of days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 107, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Jul 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	112
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	093 - Based on 32 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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