Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 October 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Oct 14 1249 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Oct 2015	098	021
15 Oct 2015	101	026
16 Oct 2015	104	034

Bulletin

Two C-class flares were recorded during the period, the strongest flare being an impulsive C9.5 flare from NOAA 2434, peaking at 14:11UT. Flaring activity then stalled, with no C-class flares observed since 15:00UT (13 October). NOAA 2434 is magnetically complex and displays a very bright trailing portion (in EUV), with only a few small sunspots. The other sunspot groups currently visible on the solar disk are quiet. No earth- directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed.

C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare from NOAA 2434.

Earth remains under the influence of the high speed wind stream (HSS) from the wide northern coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed varied mostly between 450 and 550 km/s, while Bz oscillated between -8 and +5 nT, displaying long periods of southward orientation. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed away from the Sun (positive). Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions were observed, with Kp reaching minor storm levels during the 00-03UT interval.

Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a continuing chance on minor geomagnetic storming episodes, in particular on 15-16 October when Earth is likely to pass through the HSS from the eastmost extension of the northern CH.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 056, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Oct 2015

Wolf number Catania	082
10cm solar flux	096
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	027
Estimated Ap	026
Estimated international sunspot number	064 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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