Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 October 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Oct 15 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Oct 2015	103	018
16 Oct 2015	105	034
17 Oct 2015	109	024

Bulletin

Six low-level C-class flares were recorded during the period. The strongest was a C2.7 flare peaking at 10:48UT, apparently from a location near spotless region NOAA 2429. NOAA 2434 was the source of the 5 other C-class flares, its leading portion showing some magnetic polarity mixing, while its trailing portion contains only a few small sunspots. The two other sunspot groups currently visible on the solar disk were quiet. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed.

C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare from NOAA 2434.

Earth was under the influence of the high speed wind stream (HSS) from the wide northern coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed was mostly declining from an initial 550 km/s to its current 450 km/S. Bz oscillated between -6 and +4 nT, with persistent values near -6 nT for 7 hours starting around 04:00UT. The latter period coincided with an increasing solar wind density and decreasing temperature, as well as an erratic behaviour of the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), which up to that time was mostly pointing away from the Sun (positive). Quiet to locally active geomagnetic conditions were observed.

Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance on minor geomagnetic storming episodes as Earth is likely to pass through the HSS from the eastmost extension of the northern CH.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 050, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Oct 2015

Wolf number Catania	070
10cm solar flux	101
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	022
Estimated international sunspot number	055 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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