Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 November 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Nov 18 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Nov 2015	107	027
19 Nov 2015	107	035
20 Nov 2015	107	010

Bulletin

Solar activity was low with only a single C flare peaking at 15:54UT at C1.1 level originating from Catania group 78 (NOAA region 2454). The other regions previously on disk mostly diffused while Catania group 78 first developed multiple spots and later showed separation of the magnetic footpoints. Quiet solar conditions are expected with the possibility of an isolated C flare remaining. South of Catania group 78 (NOAA region 2454) an eruption occurred with an associated on-disk dimming around 00:41UT but currently available coronagraph data do not show any related CME signatures.

Solar wind speed remained nominal and roughly in the 360-380 km/s range. Around 19:40UT the magnetic field phi angle turned from the positive into a negative (towards) sector which was followed by a gradual increase of total magnetic field to around 8nT. Bz was mainly negative but of small amplitude (>-4nT) before the sector boundary crossing but saw stronger variability and more pronounced excursions later (down to -8nT). Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 0-3, NOAA Kp 1-3). Solar wind conditions are expected to become agitated in the afternoon due to the combined effects of the expected high speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole and the glancing blow arrival of the November 16 CME. Geomagnetic conditions may reach minor to moderate storm levels. These effects are expected to last over the next 24 hours with recovery to nominal conditions setting in over the next 48 hours..

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 031, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Nov 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	035 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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