Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 November 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Nov 19 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Nov 2015	109	007
20 Nov 2015	111	007
21 Nov 2015	113	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was low with only a single C flare peaking at 20:09UT at C1.1 level from a region at the NE limb. Catania regions 77 and 78 (now marked separately NOAA 2454 and 2456 respectively) remained relatively simple and inactive. The new region that is turning over the NE limb, and responsible for yesterdays C flare, will come into view over the next days. A further occasional C flare can be expected. No Earth directed CMEs have been recorded in coronagraph data. Solar wind speed increased over the period under the combined influence of a negative polarity coronal hole and later the arrival of the shock related to the November 16 CME. Solar wind speed initially rose from around 370 km/s to 420 km/s with Bz stable in the 6-8nT range. At 19:23 UT a shock was observed in the solar wind with magnetic field increasing suddenly from 6 to 12.7nT and with associated minor jumps in solar wind speed (420 to 450 km/s) and density. The Bz field became pronounced negative for a while after the shock. Since then Solar wind speed was in the 420-500 km/s range with a generally decaying trend and meanwhile total magnetic field has fully recovered to values below 4 nT. Active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions (local K Dourbes 4 and NOAA Kp reaching 5 for one perid) were recorded in response to the negative Bz around midnight. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to restore with associated quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 041, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Nov 2015

Wolf number Catania	039
10cm solar flux	108
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	019
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	029 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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