Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 April 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Apr 14 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Apr 2016	108	018
15 Apr 2016	108	007
16 Apr 2016	108	007

Bulletin

Beta region NOAA AR 2529 released one C2.9 flare in the past 24 hours, which peaked at 23:43 UT on April 13. More C flares (probability 65%) are expected in the next 24 hours, with a slight chance (probability 10%) for an M flare, especially from AR 2529. CACTUS detected a northwestward CME on LASCO C2 data starting from 17:36 UT on April 13. This CME is most probably associated with a backside filament eruption first observed in EUVI A imagery at 17:15 UT, and will not be geo-effective. In the wake of a coronal hole high speed stream, solar wind speed decreased from about 540 to 450 km/s around 6:50 UT on April 14. A weak shock in the solar wind was registered by ACE at 6:54 UT, lifting the solar wind speed to about 490 km/s. This shock probably corresponds to the expected glancing blow from the April 10 CME. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field decreased from 7 to 4 nT, before the shock delivered values of around 10 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on April 14, 15 and 16, with a chance for active (K Dourbes = 4) excursions on April 14.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 048, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Apr 2016

Wolf number Catania	069
10cm solar flux	108
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	028
Estimated international sunspot number	051 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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